Former US President, Donald Trump

Four reasons why Donald Trump could win in 2024

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DONALD TRUMP: “The election of ’24 is the single most important election in the history of our country…”

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has been impeached twice, tried to thwart the peaceful transition of power after losing in 2020…

TRUMP: “We will never concede…”

and faces scores of charges in multiple criminal cases.

TRUMP: “I am being indicted for you…”

But with less than a year to go until the U.S. election…

TRUMP: “Make America great again..”

Trump currently stands a better chance at returning to the White House than at any point since he left office.

He leads his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination by nearly 50 points in national opinion polls.

Here’s four reasons why he could win the November 2024 election against Democratic incumbent Joe Biden.

Unhappy voters

The White House argues the economy is in good shape.

Unemployment is down to a near-historic low of 3.9%… compared to 6.3% when Trump left office.

Inflation is cooling.

But with wages not keeping up to the cost of essential goods and services, many voters don’t believe it.

And opinion polls show voters by a large margin see Republicans as better stewards of the economy.

Fear factor

Trump also speaks to the worries — real or not — that many white Americans have in a country that’s becoming more diverse and culturally progressive.

There’s a sense that some of the key benchmarks of American life — owning a home, a decent wage and a college education — are becoming further from reach.

Polls show voters are worried about crime and nervous about the flow of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally.

Trump is adept at harnessing those fears.

Unfit for office?

Democrats and critics in Trump’s own party argue he’s unfit for office.

But at least half of Republicans surveyed by Reuters/Ipsos earlier this year said they would have no problem voting for Trump even if he were convicted of a crime.

The former president can also point to his time in office and argue the machinery of government largely functioned… if at times chaotically.

Blame Biden

Despite heavy government investment in infrastructure, clean energy and chip manufacturing…

The White House has not been able to persuade much of the public that Biden’s job-creation policies have made a difference to their lives.

There are also two foreign wars dividing Americans.

Trump’s “America first” message could resonate with voters wary of more involvement in Ukraine or Israel.

But Trump does remain deeply unpopular in many parts of the country…

And his fiery rhetoric could turn off moderate Republicans or independent voters.

If he becomes the nominee – it could also provoke a high turnout for Democrats against him.

— Reuters

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